Back-of-the-Envelope Calculation 1:100m
Sir David King, the British chief science adviser to the government, passed to Mark Henderson of the Times, London, (3.3.2006) a back-of-the-envelope calculation for the risk to get infected with bird flu. It's 1:100.000.000, hence very unlikely. Also Neil Ferguson, of Imperial College London, a leading influenza epidemiologist assists: "Whether it is 1 in 100 million or 1 in 10 million, it is a very small risk. I really don’t think H5N1 in Britain poses any public health risk."